Would Four States Cancelling The Primary Really Help Trump?
Let’s start with this, as I’ve said a hundred times before, Donald Trump is not going to lose his primary. Even giving how hard it is to beat local incumbents in general elections, let alone primaries, building a national collation against a President with a 94% approval rating among his party is near impossible.
Four state GOP’s — South Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and Kansas — have chosen to cancel there primaries and instead are just declaring Donald Trump the winner. This angered Joe Walsh and Bill Weld, as it did all six of there voters.
However, I’m doubtful — outside of obvious reasons — that those primaries would have any impact on the President’s possibility of getting re-elected.
Just look at how those states broke down in the 2016 General Election
- South Carolina: Trump won with 54.94%
- Nevada: Clinton won with 47.92% of the vote, Trump more than likely only lost because of vote splitting between him and three other right-wing candidates.
- Arizona: Trump won with 49.03% of the popular vote.
- Kansas: Trump won with 56.16% of the popular vote.
“But this is a primary,” I hear you say. Okay, let’s break down Trump’s result in the primaries of those states:
- South Carolina: Trump won with 32.51% of the popular vote.
- Nevada: Trump won with 45.75% of the popular vote.
- Arizona: Trump won with 45.95% of the popular vote.
- Kansas: Cruz won with 47.50% of the popular vote, doing slightly more than twice as good as Trump.
So it’s possible one of these two candidates could get 24 delegate, however that is still quite unlikely.
This is why I 100% agree with what Michael McDonald said:
It would be malpractice on my part to waste money on a caucus to come to the inevitable conclusion that President Trump will be getting all our delegates in Charlotte. We should be spending those funds to get all our candidates across the finish line instead.
The odds of either of these candidates getting anywhere is so unlikely it’s hilarious. I in no way care about bad and unwinnable candidates being denied, it is that simple.
