This is a column I expected to be able to write about three days ago, but the results of the Iowa Caucus are finally in.
Since this whole thing turned into a large number of issues, I figured the best way to respond would be with a series of mini-articles on each aspect I wanted to write about independently. Some of these might have been full articles, but the DNC seems to have screwed me over there.
Yes, The Iowa Caucus Matter
It seems like as soon as we knew the date, some newspaper columnists were dedicated to throwing the first caucus under the bus.
The whole reason the show starts in Iowa is because Iowa was the first to hold a direct election caucus all the way back in 1972. Four years later would mark the first fifty state primary for both Republicans and Democrats — leading to an infamous battle between President Ford and California Governor Ronald Reagan not matched until at least Senator Obama fighting Senator Clinton in 2008.
In order to see just how important the caucus is on the side of the Democrats, it is best to look at how many people who win it go onto be the nomination. Here are the winners of the Iowa caucus in every primary since 1972:
1972: Senator Edmund Muskie
1976: Governor Jimmy Carter
1980: President Jimmy Carter
1984: Vice-President Walter Mondale
1988: Rep. Dick Gephardt
1992: Senator Tom Harkin
1996: President Bill Clinton
2000: Vice-President Al Gore
2004: Senator John Kerry
2008: Senator Barack Obama
2012: President Barack Obama
2016: Sectary Of State Hillary Clinton
In all but three cases — one of those, involving a Senator from Iowa winning — the winner of the Iowa Caucus was also the nomination.
Although a forth may be upon us for reasons I’ll get to in a minute — mostly because nobody can figure out who actually won — this would not make the critics correct in anything but a lucky guess.
The Hilarious Fall Of Joe Walsh And Bill Weld
On November 8th, I’m voting for Trump. On November 9th, if Trump loses, I’m grabbing my musket. You in?-Joe Walsh
While people had no idea what the hell was going on for the DNC, we all knew what was going on for the other party — in fact, if you weren’t named Bill Weld or Joe Walsh, you knew ever since 2017.
Here is the vote count from Iowa:
- Donald Trump: 31,464
- Bill Weld: 426
- Joe Walsh: 348
Now I don’t much mind Weld losing, he admitted he was a long shot from the start and more or less stated he only intended to get protest votes, although the amount he thought he’d get was still an exaggeration.
Walsh is a different story, I can honestly say I have never seen such a silent majority since Maxime Bernier. In fact, the majority was so silent it was like they didn’t even exist. Hence why, since then, Walsh has gone into full meltdown mode on Twitter.
Here is him during Iowa:
The world is watching the #IowaCaucus and following what we do here today. We’ve talked with Iowa voters as well as press and visitors from across the globe. #BeBrave tonight as you head to your precinct.
Here is him after:
Today’s Republican Party is Trump’s Republican Party. In fact, it’s not a party, it’s a cult. I refuse to belong to a cult.
One cannot help but find it a little more than a coincidence that Walsh just announced his new book, entitled Fuck Silence: Calling Trump Out For The Cultish, Moronic, Authoritarian Con Man He Is — which will be released on 2/18/2020.
Of course, this did not stop Walsh from supporting Trump for over two years, throughout the entire primaries and the first year and a half of his administration.
I am currently unsure of if Walsh has any plans on dropping out, more than likely not though. I’m sure he expects his book to become a best-seller, I expect it to be on the bookshelf of his mother and nobody else.
Who Won Iowa?
Okay, now lets get into the real results. I won’t give an overall vote count breakdown because those are still coming in — although they are so close to done I feel no need to wait any longer — so instead I’ll just give the percentages:
- Senator Bernie Sanders: 26.5%
- Mayor Pete Buttigieg: 25%
- Senator Elizabeth Warren: 20.3%
- Vice-President Joe Biden: 13.7%
- Senator Amy Klobuchar: 12.2%
- Andrew Yang: 1%
- Tom Steyer: 0.2%
Anyone not mentioned got lower than 0.09% of the vote.
Biden being so far behind came right out of nowhere. Although some polls predicted this just before the election, it was still quite a shock, even to the people who knew this.
As of writing, Sanders and Buttigieg are tied for ten delegates, with Warren getting four of her own. The rest, however, do not have a single delegate.
Update: The end results have come in with all forty-one pledged delegates being declared. The results are as follows:
- Buttigieg: 13
- Sanders: 12
- Warren: 8
- Biden: 6
- Klobuchar: 1
Did Buttigieg Rig Iowa Against Bernie? Probably Not.
When the app that the DNC used to count votes crashed, people imminently started making connections. Most of them involving the company behind the app — Shadow Inc. — having ties to both Hillary Clinton and Pete Buttigieg.
While I’m one for a good conspiracy theory, this is one even I can’t get behind.
One piece of evidence I’ve seen of this is that Buttigieg announced his victory while the voters were still coming in — in fact, while we were finding out the app had malfunctioned. Yet, it seems like none of these people noticed when Sanders announced he had a “quite comfortable lead” around the same time.
Why do I think Buttigieg announced his victory? Because at that point, the numbers were neck and neck between Pete and Sanders. Pete just made a mistake, as simple as that.
As for why the DNC used the app without testing it, that was more idiocy on their part. However, the Democratic Party using an app made by a former staffer for a Democratic First Lady, Senator, Sectary Of State, and Presidential Nomination makes perfect sense. They’re using an app made by a party insider, because primaries take place inside the party.
This is especially odd considering Pete didn’t even win the caucus. He got a close second behind Bernie Sanders — the man who I thought he was trying to rig it against. Tell me, if Pete was trying so hard to rig it against Bernie specifically, why wouldn’t he at least make sure Bernie didn’t win the caucus?
If anything, there’s a stronger — albeit, still weak — case the DNC rigged it against Biden. Unlike Sanders, Biden has only been decreasing in popularity while Sanders has been increasing. Biden was also set to win in Iowa, consistently polling first, until quite recently.
Where are the Justice Democrats on this?
Where Do We Go From Here?
While I can’t predict — or at least shouldn’t try to given the results of my last attempt — the rest of the primary, it’s still fun. As such, I figured I might as well end this article by giving a brief look one what could happen in the primaries up until Super Tuesday.
This was a state Sanders swept back in 2016. In total, he won over 60% of the vote as well as every major district. It was what really established him as a powerful competitor to Hillary Clinton. It also helped establish Senator Bill Bradley as a competitor to Vice President Al Gore back in 2000.
This could be a death sentence to Biden and Klobuchar, especially Klobuchar. Although, New Hampshire doesn’t seem to have a clear voting past.
In 2016, they went for Bernie. But in 2008, they went for Hillary Clinton. Besides that, they just tend to go for whoever gets the nomination. If anything, it seems like we can write off New Hampshire pretty easily considering they have very little impact on the election overall.
A very clear strong-hold for right-leaning Democrats. They went for Senator Kerry in 2004, and Hillary Clinton in both 2008 and 2016.
This could be a place for Biden, Klobuchar, and maybe Pete to catch up if needed. If progressives break the New Hampshire primary, then this seems like it will even things out quite a bit.
This is one Sanders was crushed in back in 2016 — only getting 26% of the vote compared to Hillary’s 73%.
Although, in 2008 they did go for Obama and in 2004 they went for Edwards — of all people.
Again, another state with no clear majority of framework to work from.
Previously, I have said this race would be between Biden and Bernie. I have come to the conclusion that is wrong, this race is actually between Biden and Pete — again, of all people.
The upcoming primaries will determine who it is that gets the nomination, but the fact is clear: Biden will not be it. I will either be the Vermont Senator or the Indiana Mayor.