Well, this one was way easier than last time. Pete is a single delegate ahead of Senator Sanders — winning one delegate more than him in Iowa and having tied with him in this state.
Here’s a delegate breakdown of each candidate:
- Mayor Pete Buttigieg: 22 Delegates
- Senator Sanders: 21 Delegates
- Senator Warren: 8 Delegates
- Senator Klobuchar: 7 Delegates
- Vice President Biden: 6 Delegates
Of course, while pure data is nice it is also important to look at what that data means. Hence the rest of this article.
On The Winners
Does Sanders Winning Mean Anything?
I was predicting a Sanders victory from the start. Most people were, considering Sanders got 60% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary back in 2016, winning every county in the state.
The question remains: Does that mean anything? Considering Sanders did not win the primary back in 2016, I would say no.
In fact, primary winners have not had much luck in New Hampshire. In 2008, New Hampshire went for then-Senator Hillary Clinton against Barack Obama. In 2000, while he did not win, New Hampshire is one of the states that helped put Senator Bill Bradley on the map and showed him to be a possible competitor to Vice President Al Gore.
This does not mean that New Hampshire has no impact or that a primary victor cannot win it. It is just to say that it is nowhere near as important as many are making it out to be.
Basically, you know what every want-to-be pundit says about the Iowa caucus? Well that actually applies way more to the New Hampshire primary.
Where Did This Pete Surge Come From?
I now take Mayor Pete to be a serious candidate. I did not beforehand, I thought all the moderates would go to Biden, I was wrong. Pete is a force to be reckon with, and I feel like a fool for not seeing this earlier.
In both primaries we have had so far, Mayor Pete has done surprisingly well. The difference between him and Sanders is much closer to the difference between Obama and Clinton than between Sanders and Clinton.
Do I think he will be the nomination, more than likely not. I do believe he has a better chance of getting it than much of the mainstream media seems to realize. I also believe that he may run again if this run doesn’t work — which seems more and more unlikely.
On The Losers
God, Warren Did Bad
For a progressive state, it seems like Warren did not do as good as she was hoping. Not only did she not win a single delegate, but even Michael Bloomberg — who was not even on the ballot — won more counties than Senator Warren.
Even the moderates like Buttigieg and Klobuchar did better in a progressive state. And Warren was expected to go big, guess she had to go home.
This is what I’ve been expecting the entire time. I’ll say it before and I’ll say it again: Warren does not have a base. Anyone to her right is going for Buttigieg and anyone to the left is going for Sanders. If Warren truly wants a progressive administration, the best thing she can do is drop out of the race and endorse Bernie Sanders. The sooner she does that, the more likely Bernie is to get the nomination.
Will Biden Catch Up?
At this rate, it seems like what seemed obvious, a Biden nomination, is becoming less and less likely.
Biden is unlikely to get a win in Nevada next week. His only hope is to win South Carolina and then carry basically all of the Super Tuesday states. That seems unlikely.
Similar to Hillary Clinton, Biden is one of those people who is only less liked the longer he speaks. This is why he was unable to gain traction in 2008, that and plagiarism is why he was unable to get anywhere in 1988.
1988 is a great example of that. Consider the people Biden did worse then: Pat Schroeder, Douglas Applegate, James Traficant, David Duke (I’m not joking), Lyndon LaRouche, Bruce Babbitt, Gary Hart, Dick Gephardt, Paul Simon, Al Gore, Jesse Jackson, and Michael Dukakis. Now tell me, how many of these people have you heard of? I bet four, at most: David Duke, Al Gore, Jesse Jackson, and Michael Dukakis.
Biden is not a political powerhouse. While I am unsure he couldn’t defeat Donald Trump — if only because a good number of Trump voters might get them confused — I do not expect him to make it through the primary.
Tulsi’s Final Fall
Rep. Gabbard was supposed to have her big break yesterday. In fact, she spent over 100 days campaigning in New Hampshire hoping to win. Gabbard then got 3.3% of the vote, placing 7th behind the major candidates and Tom Steyer.
Gabbard’s choice to focus so hard on her Presidential Campaign was a major mistake. She had a safe seat in Hawaii and has since chosen to give it up to pursue her Presidential Campaign.
Gabbard has said that no only is she giving up her Congress seat, but she also plans on running until the convention. From a political perspective, this is a mistake. It would make the most sense for her to continue to push her ideas in the house.
Gabbard is going to become another has been, and she has done this to herself. She could easily serve another five or ten terms in Congress if she truly wanted to, but instead she chose to risk it on this dream, and it’s failing her.
What’s To Come Of Andrew Yang?
On the other end, of all the three candidates that have dropped out — Senator Michael Bennet, Governor Deval Patrick, and Andrew Yang — Yang is the only one I think is staying around.
Running for President was clearly a start, not an end. Yang announced his campaign on 11/6/2017, long before any other major candidate. He got a reputation of being highly likable among everyone from Bill Maher to Ben Shapiro, and everyone in between.
Yang got a cult of personality. He was an internet candidate, similar to what Ron Paul was, however, his cult was quite a big and vocal one.
Personally, I can tell you that if I saw someone inspired enough to get a bumper sticker, yard sign, or long sleeve shirt promoting a campaign, it was for Andrew Yang. In that way, he might be planning a Reagan style campaign, building up more and more support over time until it tips over.
Consider this, while I was unable the state Yang lives in, I believe it’s California. In 2022, California’s unpopular governor Gavin Newsom will be up for re-election with a base that is nowhere near as energized as Yang’s is. It would be easy for someone like Yang to run and beat a boring normal candidate like Newsom and become governor of California.
I am going out on a limb: I do not believe we have seen the last of Andrew Yang. I believe he will run again for some kind of local office, and he almost certainly will win. The politics of the 2020’s have the potential to be shaped by Yang, and I would keep a close eye on him going forward.