I Make An Iowa Prediction

Ever since the start of the election of Donald Trump, I knew that the primary for 2020 would be between former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders. Those two men were the people the base wanted most to run, and every poll had them around the same amount.

Since then, I’ve been called crazy a number of times. Rather it be the now defunct campaigns of Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Senator Harris, or the falling campaigns of Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar.

In every Democratic Primary since 1992, the Iowa caucus is quite good at telling how the rest of the primary will go. Barack Obama’s win in Iowa is what propelled him from just some crazy anti-war/token African-American Senator into a full fledged presidential candidate.

Here is the latest poll from Emerson of Iowa voters:

• Vice President Biden: 23%
• Senator Sanders: 22%
• Mayor Buttigeig: 18%
• Senator Warren: 12%
• Senator Klobuchar: 10%

As It Stands

Let’s get this out of the way: The winner is clearly going to be either Biden or Sanders. Rather 2nd place is one of those two candidates or Mayor Buttigeig is something I remain unsure of, however, I need to see more polling before I become sure if he’s gaining momentum or just a flash in the pan.

I will also predict that the first and second place candidates will be quite close to each other. Whoever gets first place and whoever gets 2nd place will be within five points, maybe even two or three points, of each other.

I predict Buttigeig also do in fact believe that Buttigeig is going to be the deciding factor, as will be Warren. Allow me to explain.

The 2020 Primary Will Be Decided By Who’s Not Running

Say Senator Warren drops out of the Presidential race tomorrow. Considering she’s the 2nd most progressive in the top five, right next to Sanders, it’s safe to assume that the vast majority of her followers would go to Sanders without much hesitation.

Here’s what the poll would look like if Warren was not in the race and all her votes went to Bernie:

• Senator Sanders: 34%
• Vice President Biden: 23%
• Mayor Buttigeig: 18%
• Senator Klobuchar: 10%

Sanders wins with an 11 point lead, something not even Barack Obama could quite achieve back in 2008.

However, say Senator Klobuchar drops out. Now she’s not the only moderate Democrat in the top five, so instead we’ll assume half her supporters go to Biden and another half go to Buttigeig:

• Vice President Biden: 28%
• Mayor Buttigeig: 23%
• Senator Sanders: 22%
• Senator Warren: 12%

Wow, now not only does Biden have a healthy five point lead but Senator Sanders is moved down to third!

Now say we combine those two hypothetical scenarios from before, and both play out how I predicted they would beforehand.

• Senator Sanders: 34%
• Vice President Biden: 28%
• Mayor Buttigeig: 23%

Well, now Sanders is back in the lead.

Of course, Biden has the benefits of being liked by the Democratic Party and being well known since the 80’s. However, Sanders does not have any such luxury.

To put it simply, the biggest threat to Bernie Sanders getting the nomination is Senator Warren. If Warren drops out of the race, then Sanders is almost certainly going to get the nomination. In a direct primary between Sanders, Biden, and Buttigeig, Sanders will win.

However, I will note that if Buttigeig drops out, Vice President Biden will win in a landslide. If any of these candidates want Bernie to not get the nomination, the best thing they can do is drop out of the race.